There are places on the Formula 1 calendar where the air itself seems to vibrate with history, expectation, and the faint aroma of burnt clutch. Mexico City is one of them. As we approach the 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix, the paddock is a cauldron of nerves, nostalgia, and not a little déjà vu. The ghosts of last year’s race still linger in the Foro Sol stadium, and the championship battle—now a three-way knife fight—has never felt more alive. Or, if you’re a McLaren strategist, more terrifying.
- Altitude Sickness: Why Mexico City Is F1’s Great Equalizer
- 2024: The Year Ferrari Danced in the Stadium
- 2025: The Title Fight No One Saw Coming
- The Circuit: Where Physics Goes on Holiday
- McLaren’s Dilemma: Team Harmony or Civil War?
- Red Bull: The Return of the King?
- Ferrari: The Wild Card
- The Rookie Invasion: FP1 Gets a Shake-Up
- Strategy, Tyres, and the Art of Survival
- Breathless, Brilliant, and Broken
- What to Watch For: Five Burning Questions
Let’s take a deep breath (if you can, at 2,200 meters above sea level) and dive into what makes this weekend so pivotal, how it echoes the drama of 2024, and why the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez remains the sport’s most unpredictable stage.
Altitude Sickness: Why Mexico City Is F1’s Great Equalizer
If you’ve ever tried running up a flight of stairs in Mexico City, you’ll know what the drivers are in for. The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez sits at a lung-busting 2,200 meters, making it the highest circuit on the calendar. The thin air means less oxygen for engines and humans alike, less downforce, and more unpredictability than a Ferrari pit stop in the rain.
The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is a very unique track. It has the highest altitude that we face, it means a high-downforce package only produces a low-downforce, plus cooling is the biggest issue.
Ayao Komatsu, Haas F1 Team Principal
The result? Cars run Monaco-level wings but still slide around like it’s Monza. Engines gasp for breath, brakes overheat, and drivers finish the race looking like they’ve just run a marathon—because, in a way, they have.
2024: The Year Ferrari Danced in the Stadium
Let’s wind the clock back to last year. The 2024 Mexico City Grand Prix was a masterclass in control from Carlos Sainz, who took the lead from Max Verstappen on lap 9 and never looked back. Lando Norris split the Ferraris to finish second, while Charles Leclerc rounded out the podium. Verstappen, despite leading the opening laps, faded to third—a rare off-day at a circuit he once owned.
Here’s how the podium looked in 2024:
| Position | Driver | Team | Time/Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Sainz | Ferrari | 1:40:55.800 |
| 2 | Lando Norris | McLaren | +4.705 seconds |
| 3 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +34.387 seconds |
Sainz’s victory was Ferrari’s first in Mexico since the days when moustaches were mandatory and telemetry was a man with a stopwatch. The race was notable for its lack of chaos—no major crashes, no safety cars, just relentless, high-altitude attrition. Verstappen, who had dominated here for three consecutive years (2021-2023), was finally dethroned.
2025: The Title Fight No One Saw Coming
Fast forward to today, and the championship narrative has twisted itself into a shape only a novelist could love. Oscar Piastri leads the standings with 346 points, Lando Norris is just 14 points behind, and Max Verstappen—written off by some after the summer break—has clawed his way back to within 40 points of the lead. The Dutchman’s recent form is the stuff of nightmares for McLaren fans: three wins in the last four races, and a Red Bull that seems to thrive in the thin Mexican air.
If someone had told me after my home race 49 days ago that I would be a title contender by the end of the U.S. Grand Prix, I would have told him he was an idiot.
Max Verstappen, via ESPN
But here we are. The McLaren duo, once locked in a private duel, now find themselves glancing nervously in the mirrors for the charging Red Bull. Every point matters, every mistake is magnified, and the pressure is enough to make even the most seasoned engineer reach for the tequila.
The Circuit: Where Physics Goes on Holiday
The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is a paradox. The 1.2km main straight is the longest run to Turn 1 on the calendar, with cars hitting 320km/h before slamming on the brakes for a tight chicane. The Esses (Turns 7-11) demand aero grip that simply isn’t there, while the stadium section (Turns 12-15) is a slow, technical labyrinth where the crowd’s roar is as disorienting as the lack of oxygen.
Historically, the circuit has produced:
- Reliability nightmares: Engines and brakes overheat, especially in the thin air.
- Driver exhaustion: The lack of oxygen makes concentration and stamina critical.
- Setup headaches: Teams must compromise between downforce, cooling, and mechanical grip.
- Unpredictable outcomes: Safety cars, virtual safety cars, and lock-ups are common.
Mexico is where the laws of physics go on holiday, and the engineers have to pick up the tab.
Steve Matchett
McLaren’s Dilemma: Team Harmony or Civil War?
McLaren’s resurgence in 2025 has been the story of the season. Piastri and Norris have traded blows all year, but the harmony is starting to fray. Piastri’s recent form has wobbled—he hasn’t finished ahead of Norris since Zandvoort, and he’s lost 64 points to Verstappen in just four races. Norris, fresh off a podium in Austin, smells blood.
The team now faces the classic F1 conundrum: let the drivers race, or impose team orders to protect the championship? History is littered with examples of both approaches ending in tears. Just ask Williams in 1986, or Mercedes in 2016.
The Drivers’ Championship is still in our hands, and that’s what matters. But we need to be perfect from here on out.
Andrea Stella, McLaren Team Principal
Red Bull: The Return of the King?
Max Verstappen’s love affair with Mexico City is well documented. Three consecutive wins from 2021 to 2023, and a podium in 2024, make him the most successful driver at this circuit in the modern era. The RB21’s turbocharged engine is expected to thrive in the thin air, and the bookmakers have Verstappen as the favorite to win this weekend.
Here are the current odds for the top contenders (as of October 21, 2025):
| Driver | DraftKings | Oddschecker | Tips.GG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | +175 | +137 | +125 |
| Lando Norris | +200 | +275 | +225 |
| Oscar Piastri | +250 | +400 | +333 |
| George Russell | +1400 | +1800 | +1400 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1400 | +2000 | +1600 |
If Verstappen wins, the title fight will be blown wide open. If McLaren can hold him off, they might just keep their fairy tale alive.
Ferrari: The Wild Card
Ferrari’s 2024 victory was a reminder that, on their day, the Scuderia can still outfox the best. This year, however, the red cars have been inconsistent—brilliant one weekend, baffling the next. Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton (yes, that still feels odd to write) have shown flashes of speed, but reliability and strategy have let them down.
Still, the bumpy, low-grip surface of Mexico City could play to Ferrari’s strengths.
Ferrari could have a strong car at the F1 Mexican GP, as it works brilliantly over bumps.
Yuki Tsunoda
The Rookie Invasion: FP1 Gets a Shake-Up
Under F1’s 2025 rules, teams must run rookie drivers in two FP1 sessions per car. This weekend, the likes of Pato O’Ward (McLaren), Jak Crawford (Aston Martin), and Luke Browning (Williams) will get their chance to impress. For O’Ward, it’s a homecoming—he’ll drive Norris’s car in front of an adoring Mexican crowd.
It’s always great to come home. The atmosphere and fan support in Mexico City is very special. I’m looking forward to getting on track, contributing to the team, helping with the car setup and gathering data. Thank you to Zak and Andrea for the opportunity, I can’t wait.
Pato O’Ward
Strategy, Tyres, and the Art of Survival
Pirelli’s allocation for the weekend is conservative: C2 hard, C4 medium, C5 soft. The track’s low grip and high altitude mean tyre graining is a constant threat, and teams will be tempted by the pace of the softs but wary of their fragility. Historically, the race has been a one-stop affair, but the resurfaced stadium section and unpredictable weather could tempt some into riskier two-stop strategies.
Expect virtual safety cars from cooling woes, DRS drama on the main straight, and at least one team to gamble on an early stop that either wins them the race or ruins their weekend.
Breathless, Brilliant, and Broken
It’s easy to get lost in the numbers, but Mexico City is a race that tests the human spirit as much as the machinery. Drivers emerge from the cockpit drenched in sweat, eyes bloodshot, voices hoarse. The crowd—30,000 strong in the stadium alone—roars them on, creating an atmosphere unlike any other in motorsport.
For me, one of the coolest and most iconic parts of the circuit is the packed stadium section. It’s always really special to drive through there, and it gets all the drivers hyped up before the race.
Esteban Ocon
What to Watch For: Five Burning Questions
- Can McLaren hold their nerve? Piastri and Norris must avoid tripping over each other while fending off Verstappen.
- Will Verstappen’s Mexico magic return? The Dutchman is the bookies’ favorite, but can he deliver under pressure?
- Can Ferrari spring a surprise? The red cars have the pace, but do they have the consistency?
- Which rookie will shine? FP1 could see a future star announce themselves on the world stage.
- Will the altitude claim another victim? Reliability and driver fatigue are always lurking in the thin air.
