2025 Monaco Grand Prix: Predictions and Odds
The Crown Jewel or the Crown’s Headache?
Ah, Monaco. The race that every driver wants to win, every sponsor wants to be seen at, and every journalist secretly dreads for its annual parade of yachts, influencers, and overtaking statistics that would make a snail blush. Yet, here we are, five days out from the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix, and the paddock is humming with more intrigue than a Ferrari strategy meeting.
This year, the odds boards are as tight as the Fairmont Hairpin, and the storylines are juicier than a Red Bull press release after a double DNF. Let’s dive into the predictions, the numbers, and the human drama that makes Monaco the most unpredictable predictable race on the calendar.
Odds-on Favourites: McLaren’s Orange Crush
If you’d told me five years ago that McLaren would arrive in Monaco as the bookies’ darlings, I’d have checked your coffee for suspicious additives. Yet, here we are: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are co-favourites, both sitting at +180 (35.7% implied probability) according to DraftKings as of May 19th. source
Norris, fresh off a string of podiums and a resurgent Imola drive, is tipped by many to finally break his Monaco duck. Piastri, meanwhile, has been the revelation of the season, with four wins already and a qualifying record that would make Senna nod in approval.
But before you mortgage the family yacht, remember: Monaco is the great equalizer. As I’ve said before, “He’s fast. So was Jean Alesi. Look how that turned out.”
Dr. Helmut Marko, Red Bull, after Imola, said:
We brought several new parts here. I think we were even better than McLaren. We were simply faster. This is the first time in a year that the upgrades have had a positive effect on the car. I am happy and we are going to Monaco next week with a lot of confidence.
Red Bull, with Max Verstappen at +400 (20%), is lurking. Verstappen’s Imola win and the team’s long-awaited upgrade package have injected fresh uncertainty into what was looking like a McLaren procession. If you believe in momentum, Verstappen is your man. If you believe in Monaco’s unique brand of chaos, you might want to keep your wallet in your pocket.
Watch: Monaco Grand Prix Predictions & Imola Review – P1 Picks Podcast
The Home Hero: Leclerc’s Second Coming?
Charles Leclerc finally exorcised his home race demons in 2024, converting pole to victory and sending the Monegasque faithful into raptures. This year, he’s a tempting +1100 (8.3%), and the pundit class is split between “he’s due” and “Ferrari’s form is a mirage.”
Read: 12 Reasons Charles Leclerc Could Dominate the Monaco GP in 2025
Leclerc’s qualifying prowess is legendary, and in Monaco, that’s half the battle. But Ferrari’s 2025 campaign has been a rollercoaster: flashes of brilliance, followed by strategic own-goals and the occasional midfield anonymity. Still, as history shows, Monaco wipes the slate clean. The driver who takes pole will likely stand atop the podium. Ferrari’s inadequacies won’t be nearly as apparent on a course with such a low average speed (93 mph).
Charles Leclerc, after Imola qualifying, said:
I’m very disappointed, especially at home, at such a special Grand Prix for the team – it just hurts. It would have hurt anyway, whatever track, but here it hurts even more. I have no words about our performance today.
But as the old proverb goes, “A wounded lion is still a lion.” Leclerc’s home advantage, psychological edge, and the adoration of the Monte Carlo crowd make him a tantalizing long shot.
The New Rules: Two Stops, Twice the Trouble?
This year, the FIA has decided to spice up the Monaco recipe by mandating two pit stops and the use of at least two different dry compounds. The intention? To force teams out of their comfort zones and, perhaps, to manufacture a bit of drama in a race notorious for its processional nature.
Read: 5 storylines for the F1 Monaco Grand Prix
Drivers are, predictably, skeptical. Alexander Albon summed it up with typical candor:
The cars are getting bigger but the circuit stays the same, so I think overtaking will always be tricky until the regulations change.
Will this rule change actually improve the racing, or will it simply add another layer of strategic confusion? If last year’s red-flag-induced pit stop shuffle is any guide, expect the unexpected—and don’t be surprised if the winner is decided on Saturday, not Sunday.
The Chasing Pack: Hamilton, Russell, and the Rest
Lewis Hamilton (+1400) and George Russell (+1400) are both in the mix, but Mercedes’ form has been as unpredictable as a Monaco weather forecast. Hamilton’s move to Ferrari next year is the talk of the paddock, but for now, he’s focused on extracting every ounce from a car that flatters to deceive.
Lewis Hamilton, after Imola, said:
It felt so great to finally get the set-up right and to have that bond with the car throughout the race. I’m ecstatic. It would have been great to have had some more laps and challenged for a podium.
Russell, meanwhile, is quietly racking up points and waiting for the stars to align. If you’re looking for a value bet, he’s not a bad shout—especially if qualifying throws up a surprise.
And then there’s Kimi Antonelli (+2200), the rookie sensation. Mercedes have doubts, but Monaco has a habit of rewarding the brave and punishing the overconfident. If you fancy a flutter on chaos, Antonelli is your man.
The Long Shots: Where Dreams Go to Die (or Occasionally, to Live)
Carlos Sainz (+15000), Alex Albon (+15000), Yuki Tsunoda (+20000), and a cast of thousands round out the odds table. History says don’t bother—since 2004, over 70% of Monaco winners have started from pole, and the rest have relied on weather, red flags, or divine intervention.
But if you’re the type who bets on rain at the Sahara, Monaco is your playground. Just remember: “Back in my day, we had gear sticks, not marketing departments.”
Statistical Parallels: The Pole Position Paradox
Let’s talk numbers. Since 2004, 15 out of 21 Monaco Grands Prix have been won from pole. The last time a driver won from outside the front row without the aid of a red flag or a monsoon was… well, let’s just say it’s been a while.
Qualifying is everything. If you’re betting, wait until Saturday. If your driver isn’t on the front row, spend your money on a nice lunch instead.
Watch: Monaco Grand Prix Picks, Predictions & Odds | Formula 1
The Human Drama: Pressure, Glory, and the Curse of Monaco
Monaco is more than a race; it’s a psychological crucible. The walls are close, the stakes are high, and the ghosts of past failures haunt every apex. For Leclerc, it’s a chance to prove 2024 was no fluke. For Norris and Piastri, it’s the opportunity to etch their names alongside the greats. For Verstappen, it’s about reasserting dominance in a season that’s suddenly less certain.
And for the rest? It’s about survival, glory, and maybe—just maybe—a miracle.
Pedro’s Picks: The Smart Money and the Fool’s Gold
- Best Bet: Lando Norris (+180). He’s in form, he’s hungry, and McLaren’s qualifying pace is formidable. But don’t expect a walkover.
- Value Bet: Max Verstappen (+400). Red Bull’s upgrades have closed the gap, and Verstappen’s racecraft is unmatched.
- Long Shot: Charles Leclerc (+1100). Home advantage, qualifying magic, and the scent of redemption.
- Wildcard: Kimi Antonelli (+2200). If Monaco delivers its trademark chaos, the rookie could be the story of the weekend.
But as always, remember: “Let’s wait for the third race before calling anyone a legend.”
Waste a bit more time
- Monaco Grand Prix Odds & Predictions (Sportsbook Review)
- 12 Reasons Charles Leclerc Could Dominate the Monaco GP in 2025 (Newsbreak)
- 5 storylines for the F1 Monaco Grand Prix (SB Nation)
- Monaco Grand Prix Picks, Odds & Preview (Vegas Odds)
- F1 Monaco Grand Prix Odds | Premium Bet Finder (YouTube)
- Super early 2025 predictions thread (Autosport Forum)
- Instagram: F1 Official
- X: F1 Official
